The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised the forecast for the production of Ukrainian walnuts in the 2018/19 marketing season by 17% to 127 thousand tons. This will allow the country to gain a foothold in the TOP-3 world producers, the American analysts report said in October.
For comparison, in 2017/18 MY the harvest amounted to 108.5 thousand tons, the previous season gave 108 thousand tons.
It is expected that 42.3 thousand tons will be exported. Moreover, if before the main buyer of Ukrainian walnuts was Russia, then now the supply chain has shifted to the European Union and China.
Compared to last season, exports will grow by 61%. But even in 2016/17 MY, Ukraine managed to export much more, 52.6 thousand tons.
At the same time, world production of walnuts is expected to decrease by 2%, to 2 million tons. This will be affected by the decline in yield in China, which levels out possible growth in all other countries.
China is expected to collect 850 thousand tons of walnuts, 15% less than the previous USDA forecast. The reason for this is the slow recovery of trees after last year’s frosts.
We recall that for 7 months of 2018, the export of walnuts from Ukraine amounts to $ 67.1 million, which is 83% more than the corresponding period last year. In 2017, the products worth $ 100.8 million were exported, which in turn was 27.5% more than in 2016 ($ 79.1 million).
By the way, now in Ukraine, there is a program of compensation for 80% of the cost of seedlings when planting new plantations, including walnuts. Last year, 1,843 hectares of orchards were planted, during an incomplete 2018, there are 2,400 hectares.